IEA: Oil Outlook Through 2011

According to the International Energy Agency’s July 2010 Oil Market Report, global oil demand through 2011 is projected to rise 1.6% or 1.3 mb/dyear‐on‐year to 87.8 mb/d, driven entirely by non-OECD country consumption, as OECD countries continue to see a gradual decline. This is a slight reduction from 2010’s 1.8 mb/d growth, fueled in part by an early, buoyant global recovery and stimulus funds.

The report, released today, is filled with a number of caveats, particularly the current and future direction of the global economic recovery, which has waned in the early summer months.  IEA bases its oil demand projection on the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, with global GDP growth reaching +4.3% in 2011 from +4.1% in 2010 as recovery from the 2008/2009 recession continues apace.  In its report, IEA notes that sustained economic recovery cannot be taken for granted, theorizing that if 2011 economic growth is 30% lower than its working assumption, global oil demand could be around 1.0 mb/d less, at 86.8 mb/d instead of the anticipated 87.8 mb/d.

Relatively high, stable crude prices, rising spending, and a lull in upstream cost inflation have re‐invigorated growth, and growth in Brazil, Colombia and Canada give an Americas‐oriented slant to 2011 non‐OPEC growth.

Looking in the U.S., IES cut 30 kb/d from its 2010/2011 US Gulf of Mexico estimate because of delays following the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

As just today the Obama Administration announced a new moratorium on deepwater drilling until November 2010, IE notes that project delays could further curb future US supply pending current and future drilling restrictions.

Politics and economics aside, the IEA July 2010 Oil Market Report notes that midstream bottlenecks look unlikely between now and end‐2011. Refinery additions continue apace, with 2.3 mb/d of new primary capacity (much of it in China, the Asia Pacific and Middle East) being added globally during 2010/2011, which will cap system‐wide utilisation rates. Shipyards will also deliver over 70 mdwt of new tanker tonnage this year and next. Midstream and downstream markets are notoriously cyclical, and it looks like both refining margins and freight rates could underperform, despite the economic upturn foreseen in most consensus forecasts.

Highlights from the IEA July 2010 Oil Market Report:

• Benchmark crude prices traded in a $71‐79/bbl range in June, after a volatile May.

• OECD industry stocks rose for a second consecutive month in May, across all regions and by a combined 35.0 mb, reaching 2 757 mb or 61.0 days of forward demand cover.

• Global oil demand for 2011 is expected to rise by 1.6% or 1.3 mb/dyear‐on‐year to 87.8 mb/d.

• OPEC crude oil supply averaged 28.9 mb/d in June, down by 65 kb/d from May.

• Non‐OPEC supply could rise by 0.4 mb/d in 2011 to 52.8 mb/d, following 0.8 mb/d growth in 2010.